WASHINGTON — If it’s Friday ... A Russian missile strike hits residential high-rise in Kyiv. ... President Biden phones Mexico’s president to discuss immigration and other regional issues. ... Sen. Ted Cruz stumps for Josh Mandel in Ohio Senate. ... Reps. Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, as well as Sen. Josh Hawley, campaign for J.D. Vance over the weekend. ... And what ever happened to those Biden-Harris lunches?
But first: Two words help sum up next week’s GOP Senate primary in Ohio.
Fluid and uncertain.
This Republican race is fluid, because after Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance, the “Hillbilly Elegy” author shot up double digits to first place, per this week’s Fox News poll, while businessman Mike Gibbons fell by almost double digits. (There was margin-of-error movement with the other GOP candidates.)
And it's uncertain, because Vance’s level of support in the poll (23 percent among GOP primary voters) is lower than the share of voters who say they’re still undecided after Trump’s endorsement (25 percent).
The Fox News poll’s Ohio Senate numbers:
- Vance 23 percent (was 11 percent in March)
- Josh Mandel 18 percent (was 20 percent)
- Mike Gibbons 13 percent (was 22 percent)
- Matt Dolan 11 percent (was 7 percent)
- Jane Timken 6 percent (was 9 percent)
- Undecided 25 percent (was 24 percent)
What’s more, Politico reports that Dolan, who has tried to distance himself from Trump and his 2020 election lies, has enjoyed a bit of a surge.
The same fluid and uncertain dynamic also is playing out in the GOP’s Pennsylvania Senate race, where Trump has endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, but polling suggests warning signs for him in the crowded primary on May 17.
Why are these races so fluid and uncertain? Well, Trump and his endorsement are one reason.
Another is that so many of these candidates — from Vance and Oz to David McCormick — are first-time candidates, so they didn’t enter with established bases of support.
In other words, they’re renting Trump’s supporters. Until Primary Day arrives.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 2
That’s how many times President Biden and Vice President Harris have had private lunches this year, according to NBC’s Mike Memoli.
That’s a significant decrease from the 21 times the two lunched in 2021, after Biden said he wanted to forge a similar relationship with his second-in-command as then-President Obama forged with him over regular, private lunches.
When asked about the infrequency of their lunches, Deputy White House Press Secretary Chris Meagher said: “The president and vice president are in constant touch with each other, and he relies on her counsel, partnership, and friendship as they work together to continue to grow the economy, cut costs for working families, rally the world in the face of Russia’s aggression, and make historic investments in our nation’s infrastructure.”
Other numbers you need to know today:
$33 billion: The price tag of President Biden’s proposed Ukraine aid.
$13.6 billion: The amount of money Congress has already approved in aid for Ukraine.
