What we know:
- FLASH FLOODING: Catastrophic flooding struck central Texas yesterday, causing the Guadalupe River near Kerrville to surge by more than 20-26 feet within 90 minutes, leading to widespread damage and road washouts.
- DOZENS KILLED: The death toll rose to 51 people across five counties tonight. In Kerr County, officials reported 43 deaths — 28 adults and 15 children.
- DOZENS MISSING FROM CAMP: Some families have begun identifying campers who were killed in the flooding. Officials said this morning the tally of children missing from Camp Mystic stood at 27.
Search continues amid flood devastation
Officials tonight said they are continuing search and rescue efforts following devastating flooding across Texas.
In Kerr County, which has been the most impacted, at least 43 people are dead and 27 children remain missing tonight after floodwaters swept through Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls.
The statewide death toll thus far stands at 51 people.
Number of flood-related fatalities rises to 51
The number of deaths blamed on the flooding in Texas has risen to 51 tonight.
The tally includes the latest confirmed deaths — two from Burnet County.
Kerr County has reported 28 adults and 15 children deceased, Travis County has counted four deaths, Kendall and Tom Green counties have confirmed one each, and the Burnet County Emergency Management coordinator said in a statement that two fatalities have been confirmed tonight.
Multiple people are still missing, and the death toll could continue to rise.
Massive apparent 'flood wave' struck Guadalupe River
Central Texas was inundated with several inches of rain yesterday as unstable air produced thunderstorms, but rising waters may have been punctuated by the nearly instant rush of a "flood wave."
A flood wave is "a rise in streamflow to a crest and its subsequent recession caused by precipitation, snowmelt, dam failure, or reservoir releases," according to the National Weather Service.
In video posted to Facebook yesterday, verified by NBC News, a flood wave appears to roll along the Guadalupe River in Center Point, Texas.
Taken from the vantage point of the Center Point Bridge, the roaring wave appears as a broken ocean wave might appear: roiling, foamy and white. It covers the wet river bottom and instantly brings additional inches of depth to the Guadalupe as it froths along the banks.
A forecaster for NBC affiliate WOAI of San Antonio said today that flood waves of 25 to 40 mph can strike the Guadalupe during flash flood events.
“It’s literally a situation that’s unique to a flash flood area,” the forecaster said.
In a study of 2011 Mississippi River flooding, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers concluded that most observed flood damage was a result of an initial flood wave. They can damage structures, ruin crops and disable roads and bridges, the corps said.
Missing kids at Camp Mystic have 'ripple effects' through Alamo Heights, superintendent says
Alamo Heights Independent School District Superintendent Dana Bashara acknowledged the impact of the more than two dozen missing children on the academic community.
Bashara released a statement noting that the tragedy at Camp Mystic impacted many families in the area and said "the ripple effects will of this loss will be felt across our entire community." Alamo Heights is a suburb of San Antonio, located in Bexar County.
"We also want to acknowledge that many of our students were campers at other locations along the river and experienced the fear and trauma of yesterday's events first hand," Bashara wrote.
The district is offering counseling through both the Children's Bereavement Center of South Texas and Alamo Heights Baptist Church, the superintendent's statement said.
Death toll rises to 49 in Texas flooding
The statewide death toll from flooding in Texas rose to 49 this evening.
The latest fatality was reported in San Angelo, a city in West Texas along the Concho River, about 200 miles west-northwest of Austin.
The body of Tanya Burwick, 62, was found "several blocks" from her flooded vehicle early today, San Angelo police said in a statement. She was last seen driving yesterday in an area that flooded, police said.
Her vehicle was found yesterday "submerged beneath the floodwaters," but she wasn't inside, the department said.
Search efforts reached into the evening but were suspended until this morning, when her body was found, police said.
So far, Burwick's death is the sole confirmed death from the flood event in Tom Green County. Twenty-eight adults and 15 children have died in Kerr County, four people are confirmed dead in Travis County and one person is dead in Kendall County, officials said.
4 people dead in Travis County, 13 reported missing
The death toll in Travis County has risen to four, according to the county's public information office.
Additionally, at least 13 people have been reported missing as of this evening.
That brings the statewide total death toll to 48 following an update earlier tonight in confirmed fatalities in Kerr and Kendall counties.
Second reunification center opens in Kerrville
A second reunification center has been opened in the city of Kerrville, this one specifically for people looking for information on missing loved ones unrelated to those who were at Camp Mystic.
The Calvary Temple Church opened this evening for those who are looking for unaccounted for friends and family, according to a Facebook post from the Kerrville Police Department.
"Additionally, the Dam Smoking Food Truck is there with food for anyone who needs a meal, no charge," the post said.
The church also posted that it was working with the Salvation Army and Red Cross, "doing everything we can to support our community during this challenging time."
Noem addresses concerns over federal government's warnings
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem addressed concerns over whether the federal government did enough to warn Texans about the deadly floods.
When asked by a reporter — who identified himself as a resident of Kerrville —if the federal government's foresight around the storm was a "failure," Noem said at a press conference alongside Texas Gov. Greg Abbott that “everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict."
"The National Weather Service over the years, at times, has done well, and at times, we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification," she said. "That is something, and one of the reasons that when President Trump took office that he said he wanted to fix and is currently upgrading the technology. And the National Weather Service has indicated that, with that and NOAA, that we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government for many, many years."
The National Weather Service offices nearest to the central Texas floods were well-staffed and forecasters issued timely warnings, a union representative told NBC News today.
Noem said the storm that caused the flooding was “unpredictable in the way that it reacted, in the way that it stopped right here and dumped unprecedented amounts of rain that caused a flooding event like this.”
"I’m sorry I can’t speak to when that is, but I do carry your concerns back to the federal government, to President Trump and we will do all we can to fix those kinds of things that may have felt like a failure to you and to your community members," she added. "But we know that everybody wants more warning time and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technologies have been neglected by far too long."
At least 47 killed in flooding across Texas
At least 47 deaths have been confirmed across Texas as of tonight, as severe flooding continues to hit the south-central area of the state.
Kerr County, near San Antonio, has been hit the hardest so far, reporting at least 43 people dead, including 15 children.
Kendall County, also on the outskirts of San Antonio, said it had confirmed one fatality but did not provide details on the deceased.
Travis County, where the city of Austin is located, reported three confirmed deaths as of this afternoon. No additional details were provided, but the county's public information office said another 11 people are missing.
Death toll rises to 43 in Kerr County, including 15 children
The death toll in Kerr County is now 43 people, including at least 15 children, Sherif Larry Leitha told reporters at a press conference tonight.
Of the 43 found dead, 28 are adults, with a dozen still pending identification. The identities of five of the children are also still pending, officials said.
Search and recovery efforts are ongoing, county officials said.
Intense rainfall events more likely as world warms
Heavy downpours like the one that sent floodwaters into Texas Hill Country summer camps are expected to grow more common.
On Friday morning, some areas near the Guadalupe River received several months of rainfall in just a few hours. Six to 10 inches of rainfall fell in about three hours, according to radar analysis by Alan Gerard, a meteorologist who wrote about the recent flood event. The region usually gets about 2.1 inches of rain, on average, in July and nearly 31 inches for a year, according to NOAA data.
The effects of such extreme rainfall were exacerbated by the Hill Country’s topography. Some call the area “Flash Flood Alley,” because rainfall flows quickly down its steep limestone hills and into suddenly overflowing rivers.
Scientists expect more intense rainfall events in the future as human fossil fuel use warms the atmosphere.
A warmer atmosphere can absorb — and deliver — more water, which means the likelihood of extreme precipitation is rising. For every degree of warming in Fahrenheit, the atmosphere can hold about 3%-4% more moisture. Global temperatures in 2023 were about 2.32 degrees degrees higher than the 20th-century average, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
In Texas, higher temperatures have already translated into more intense rainfall. In a 2024 report, Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon wrote that on average, “extreme one day precipitation has increased by 5% to 15% since the latter part of the 20th century” in the region. By 2036, Nielsen-Gammon wrote, he expected an additional increase of about 10% in rainfall intensity.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, said on the social media platform X that this was “precisely” the kind of rainfall event scientists expect to become more common in a warming climate.
“It’s not a question of whether climate change played a role — it’s only a question of how much,” Swain said.
Water main break prompts boil-water notice in Georgetown
Residents in the city of Georgetown, Texas, are advised to boil water until further notice following a water main break.
There was no cause listed for the break in a city news release, though it is "likely related" to the flooding conditions, the city said. Georgetown officials referred residents to an outage map to check whether they are in the affected area.
Water should be "brought to a vigorous rolling boil and then boiled for two minutes" to ensure that any harmful bacteria has been killed.
Kendall County confirms 1 fatality amid severe flooding
A death has been confirmed in Kendall County, Texas, the first fatality reported by the county's emergency management officials amid the severe flooding.
No details about the deceased were released as of Saturday evening.
County officials noted that recovery efforts are still ongoing and urged people to note the barricades put in place as crews inspect the safety of roads and bridges.
Flood maps show Camp Mystic, other summer camps, were vulnerable
Much of Camp Mystic was constructed on land near the Guadalupe River that is particularly vulnerable to flooding, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency flood mapping.
A comparison of Google satellite maps and FEMA flood mapping show many camp buildings were in “special flood hazard areas.” These areas have at least a 1% chance of flooding each year.
The FEMA maps are primarily used to identify risks to property and to set insurance requirements.
Portions of several other summer camps that dot the hills of central Texas are within “special flood hazard areas," the mapping shows, including parts of Camp La Junta and Camp Waldemar, which are both nearby.
The maps illustrate that authorities should have known many Hill Country camps were in risky locations if floodwaters began to rise.
Despite staff shortages, Texas weather offices issued timely warnings, union says
The National Weather Service offices nearest to the central Texas floods that left dozens dead and more missing were well-staffed and forecasters issued timely warnings, a union representative told NBC News today.
However, some top leadership positions were not filled permanently ahead of the event, after cuts to the federal workforce have left many weather forecasting offices nationwide short-staffed, according to Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization.
“The WFOs [weather forecasting offices] had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm,” Fahy said, adding that unfilled leadership positions were “clearly a concern.”
In a statement, the National Weather Service said it was “heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County.” The agency did not address questions about staffing, but provided a detailed outline of the warnings it sent.
“Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met,” the statement said.
Fahy said the San Antonio/Austin weather forecasting office is operating with 11 staff meteorologists and is down six employees from its typical full staffing level of 26. The office does not have a permanent science officer or warning coordination meteorologist, though there are employees acting in those leadership roles.
Fahy said the San Angelo office nearby is short four staff members from its usual staffing level of 23. The meteorologist-in-charge position — the office’s top leadership position — is not permanently filled. The office is also without a senior hydrologist.
“In San Angelo, there is no hydrologist, and that’s a problem,” Fahy said. Hydrologists analyze stream flow and play a key role in flood response.
The Texas offices are relatively well-staffed after cuts to the National Weather Service workforce. In early June, the National Weather Service was down about 600 employees after the Trump administration laid off workers and offered buyouts and early retirements.
Some NWS offices have seen staffing reductions of more than 40%, and the agency has scrambled to fill critical roles at some forecasting offices. At least eight offices stopped operating 24 hours a day this spring as a result and some have suspended weather balloon launches.
Prominent independent meteorologists who have been critical of NWS staffing and budget cuts in the past have said federal meteorologists on the ground issued timely warnings.
Alan Gerard, the former director of the analysis and understanding branch at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, wrote in a blog post that the Austin/San Antonio forecasting office “did a solid job” communicating the risks as quickly as possible.
Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist, said there were no initial indications that staffing levels or budget cuts played a role in the tragedy.
Coast Guard rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic by helicopter yesterday
The U.S. Coast Guard said in a news release that it rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, by helicopter yesterday.
Today, the Coast Guard said three people were rescued and four were assisted from a mobile home community in Leander, Texas, according to the news release.
"The preservation of life during this incident is our top priority,” Capt. Ulysses S. Mullins, chief of staff of the Coast Guard Heartland District, said in a statement. "The Coast Guard is working with the State of Texas alongside other responding agencies to ensure that every asset on scene is able to coordinate, communicate and respond as safely and quickly as possible."
Death toll from Texas floods at 32 victims
At least 32 people are dead as a result of dangerous flooding in south-central Texas, Kerr County Sheriff Larry L. Leitha said this evening at a news briefing.
Of the 32 people, 18 are adults and 14 are children, Leitha said. Five of the adults and three of the children remain unidentified.
Officials did not disclose any information about the victims.
The death toll previously stood at 27.
Volunteers flock to elementary school as families await word on missing children
Reporting from Ingram, Texas
The local elementary school in Ingram, Texas, converted Saturday morning from a reunification center for families awaiting word of missing children and loved ones to a donation center to replace what could be restored.
Local volunteers rolled cafeteria and flatbed carts to the rear of cars that pulled up with trunks of food, blankets, clothing and packs of bottled water.
Donors came from nearby towns and other parts of the Hill Country and central Texas to south Texas communities, such as La Vernia. Inside, Jodi Carpenter helped organize, separate, hang and bag clothing in the elementary school’s music room.
Carpenter couldn’t be home after seeing the devastation, she said. She had helped search for the missing son of a family that escaped the home on a ranch where they were caretakers by punching a hole in the roof. But they did not find their son in his cabin.
She also had known Jane Ragsdale, the co-owner and director of Heart O’ The Hills summer camp, who reportedly died in the flood.
“I’m in a nightmare I can’t wake up from,” Carpenter said.
Abbott expands state's disaster declaration, requests federal disaster declaration
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott expanded the state's disaster declaration to include Bexar, Burnet, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Travis and Williamson counties.
"We will continue to add counties as needed, as conditions either worsen or improve in counties across the state of Texas," Abbott said in a news briefing today. "We will ensure that every asset and resource the state has is going to be made available to every county that’s the subject of this disaster declaration."
Abbott also signed a document officially requesting a federal disaster declaration, seeking assistance from the federal government for the dangerous flooding that impacted the state.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who was also at the news briefing, said she's spoken to President Donald Trump, who will honor the declaration request, adding that "relief will be coming."
Zelenskyy shares condolences for victims in Texas floods
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his condolences for the more than two dozen people killed in the Texas floods.
"Our hearts go out to the families of the over two dozen people who died, as well as all of the American communities affected by this natural disaster," Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X. "We hope that those who have gone missing, including children from a summer camp, will be returned to safety as soon as possible."
Zelenskyy also wished first responders "strength and a speedy recovery in the areas affected by the flooding."
Earlier this week, the U.S. military paused sending a shipment of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine, amid one of the worst aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities in the country's three-year war with Russia.
Drone video shot high above Kerrville shows the devastating damage left in the wake of the flash flooding that has killed dozens and left at least 27 missing.
Pictures show damage to Kerr County
Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, shared pictures of damage to Camp Mystic and the Hunt Store in Kerr County, Texas.
3 people killed by flooding in Travis County
Three people have been killed by flooding in Travis County, according to a spokesperson for the county.
No additional information was provided.
