Some of the most powerful forces in Republican politics are on course for an explosive — and expensive — collision in West Virginia’s Senate primary.
On one side, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC, are pushing for Gov. Jim Justice, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2017, to jump into the race.
On the other, the big-spending anti-tax group Club for Growth just announced its support for Rep. Alex Mooney, a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, who has pledged to spend $10 million.
The jockeying by Washington power brokers signals the primary could be one of the most expensive in West Virginia history as Republicans target Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in a key battleground for control of the Senate. The Club for Growth is known to spend freely in GOP nominating contests, while McConnell and allies, stung by a crop of weak candidates in critical races last fall, have been proactive in shaping the 2024 map.
“I certainly wish I owned a TV station in the state of West Virginia for the 2024 cycle,” Conrad Lucas, former chair of the West Virginia GOP, told NBC News, alluding to the advertising blitz likely to blanket the state. “It’s very interesting to see this much attention happening this early. Typically, when there’s outside investment, it’s not this early.”
In particular, McConnell has made early moves to boost Justice. In February, he highlighted a poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund showing the governor with a commanding lead in a hypothetical primary, telling Fox News that Justice’s advantage was “certainly good news for us” while he was in “a candidate recruitment period.”
Senate Leadership Funds spokeswoman Torunn Sinclair cited the poll Thursday when asked about the race, saying: “Justice would be the runaway favorite in both the primary and general election.”
Unlike last cycle — when a bitter feud between McConn, R-Ky., and former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott of Florida led to an incoherent party strategy — McConnell’s apparatus and the Senate GOP campaign chief appear to be rowing in the same direction this time. Committee Chair Steve Daines of Montana is “actively recruiting” Justice to run for Senate, a source familiar with the matter said.
A more recent survey conducted by the conservative consultancy group National Public Affairs that was released Tuesday — the day the Club for Growth announced its support for Mooney — showed Justice with a 31-point edge over Mooney in a head-to-head race. Even more, the survey of Republican primary voters, conducted in mid-March with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points, found Justice with virtually 100% name recognition and a high favorability rating. Mooney’s popularity was lower, and a third of GOP voters either had no opinion or had never heard of him.
Justin Clark, founder of NPA who served in prominent roles on former President Donald Trump's 2016 and 2020 campaigns, said the most surprising element of the survey “was the extreme popularity of Gov. Justice right now.”
“I mean, this is a guy who switched parties,” Clark said. “This is a guy who’s gotten into some tussles with the state legislature at times. Justice is a guy who you wouldn’t necessarily think we’d be as wildly popular as he appears to be.”
Additionally, Clark said Mooney — who bested then-Rep. David McKinley in a contested member-versus-member primary last year with former President Donald Trump’s backing — has not seen much “residual” impact in his survey numbers. Clark said his group tested potential attacks on the candidates and “none of those really land on” Justice.
“They are going to have to take [Justice] down significantly, like losing his numbers in an incredible way,” Clark said. “That’s very difficult to do. It’s going to take a ton of money to do it. To move his numbers like that, it’s going to be a monumental feat. And I just don’t see it right now.”
“They are going to have to take [Justice] down significantly,” Clark said, adding: “It’s going to take a ton of money to do it. To move his numbers like that, it’s going to be a monumental feat. And I just don’t see it right now."
And yet, there’s a creeping fear among some pro-Justice Republicans that they could fumble a layup — specifically that the Club for Growth’s endorsement could drive away Justice and risk their best shot at finally defeating Manchin after failing three times in the ruby-red state. Manchin has not yet confirmed whether he will seek reelection, but Republicans who spoke with NBC News expect he will run.
A national Republican strategist said the Club for Growth’s financial pledge for Mooney appears designed “to scare Jim Justice” out of running, as the group sought to do with former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who bowed out of a Senate bid. But the strategist said they don’t expect it to work on Justice, given his strong early advantages in a primary.
“It’s a Trump-plus-40 state. If we don’t win that one we’re not winning anywhere else,” the strategist said. “Without West Virginia, there is no Republican majority next cycle.”
Meanwhile, Club for Growth PAC President David McIntosh called Mooney a “conservative champion,” vowing that the deep-pocketed organization will “do whatever it takes to make sure he’s elected.” In February, McIntosh said Justice is “in what we would call the moderate camp” and made clear his conservative group “wouldn’t support him in the primary.”
