Midterm Senate campaigns are a nasty, expensive exercise, and 2022 will push them to new heights.
Democrats lead the chamber — split 50-50 when factoring in the two independents who caucus with them — with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. Churning out President Joe Biden’s agenda and other progressive legislation has been a challenge with centrists like Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., to appease.
Republicans, meanwhile, have history on their side and see Biden’s falling poll numbers working in their favor. But retirements by several reliable vote-getters and former President Donald Trump’s polarizing presence are potential hazards on any road back to the majority. Trump already is a major factor in primaries where he’s endorsed a candidate or where the hope of his endorsement has dictated how the candidates behave and communicate. And he has been a relentless critic of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, dividing the party and complicating the Kentucky Republican’s recruitment efforts.
At stake is control of the Senate floor — what legislation is considered and which of Biden’s executive and judicial nominees, including a hypothetical Supreme Court vacancy, are allowed to come to a vote.
Elections for 34 of the 100 seats are on the ballot next year. Most won’t be competitive. (Look for Democratic holds in states like California and New York, where Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is seeking another six-year term, and GOP holds in states like Idaho and the Dakotas.)
These are the 10 races most likely to determine which party takes the Senate.
The top 5 battlegrounds
Georgia
For a few months, Georgia was the center of the American political universe. Biden painted the state the lightest shade of blue after decades of Republican wins, and Democrats flipped two Senate seats to capture control of the chamber. Now one of those winners, Sen. Raphael Warnock, is defending the seat he won in a special election in a potentially tougher political climate. A former pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, Warnock has been a progressive voice in the Senate, advocating for voting rights and economic aid to struggling Americans.
His likely opponent is Herschel Walker, a University of Georgia football hero who won the Heisman Trophy in 1982. Senior Republican strategists were skeptical of Walker’s candidacy, particularly after a report by The Associated Press, examining extensive records, highlighted a “turbulent personal history” that included threats to the life of his ex-wife, curious financial claims and business partners troubled by his unpredictable behavior. But once a “Complete and Total Endorsement” came down from Trump, the writing was on the wall. McConnell threw his support to Walker, all but anointing him the Republican nominee.
Arizona
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who won a special election in 2020, faces re-election for a six-year term next fall. A retired NASA astronaut and Navy pilot, he outperformed Biden by more than 40,000 votes in a historically red state that has become one of the most competitive in the country. He’ll need every advantage to hang on in what’s shaping up to be a tough year for the Democratic Party. And for now, it is unclear whom he’s running against.
The GOP primary is crowded and shaping up to be contentious, with early surveys showing state Attorney General Mark Brnovich in the lead. Among the candidates in contention is Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who is fully embracing phony election fraud theories, proclaiming in a recent video, “I think Trump won in 2020.” Polling is sparse, but Kelly currently has the edge. The Washington Republican establishment has sought to recruit Gov. Doug Ducey, who says he’s not interested. Trump has vowed not to endorse the term-limited Ducey after he certified Biden’s narrow victory in the 2020 election and refused to endorse his fabricated theories of widespread fraud.
Pennsylvania
Democrats have their best chance at a Senate pickup here next year with an open seat left by the retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has dominated the fundraising race and is leading his chief rival, Rep. Conor Lamb, in primary polls. Also in the race are Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.
The GOP primary has already been a roller coaster, with the Trump-endorsed Sean Parnell dropping out last month amid a custody battle and abuse allegations from an estranged spouse, which he denies. Days later, the celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz jumped into an already crowded Republican primary. And David McCormick, a hedge fund manager with roots in the state who is married to former Trump administration adviser Dina Powell, has launched an exploratory committee and $1 million ad push to introduce himself, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
In a hypothetical matchup, a survey by Fetterman’s pollster, Data for Progress, found him leading Oz by just 2 points — 44 percent to 42 percent — among likely voters.
Nevada
Nevada is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races. Barring a shock, the matchup is set: first-term Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is set to face the Republican former state attorney general, Adam Laxalt, who is endorsed by Trump and the favorite of the party establishment in Washington. Laxalt has dabbled in fabricated claims of a tainted 2020 election and, as co-chair of Trump’s Nevada campaign, challenged the results in the state after Biden won.
Democrats may be on a winning streak in Nevada races for federal office, but it’s close. Cortez Masto won her race by about 2.5 points in 2016, and Democrats have carried the state by less than 3 points in the two last presidential contests. Republicans have made the state competitive by running up their margins in the vast rural stretches outside the deep-blue Las Vegas metropolitan area, where Democrats need big turnout to be successful.
Wisconsin
The Senate contest in this bellwether state is shrouded in a mystery: Will Republican incumbent Ron Johnson run for a third term? He has held his cards close to the vest and, earlier this month, punted again when NBC News asked if he’ll run. While Johnson defied skeptics in his 2010 and 2016 bids, Democrats see an opening to paint him outside the mainstream with his transformation into a culture warrior and his flirtation with the nativist “great replacement” theory. If Johnson bails, Kevin Nicholson, who lost a 2018 Senate primary, is almost certain to run, and other names from Wisconsin’s congressional delegation will be mentioned as well.
In the Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has sought to solidify his early position, releasing an internal poll in the fall that shows him with a commanding lead, ahead of Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Barnes has touted endorsements from House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., while Nelson has won the support of the Wisconsin chapter of the Sunrise Movement, a group of young progressives. Also running are state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Alex Lasry, a senior vice president with the Milwaukee Bucks, the NBA franchise co-owned by his father.
Wisconsin has been a nail-biter in recent presidential elections. Trump won the state by less than 1 point in 2016 and lost it by less than 1 point in 2020.
5 other big races to watch
North Carolina
This open seat — Republican Sen. Richard Burr is not seeking re-election — will test both parties in a Southern state with racially diverse areas and a mix of suburban and rural voters.
