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The future of Nebraska's 'blue dot' electoral vote becomes an issue in one key midterm race

Democrats are vying to flip their party’s top House target, a Nebraska district where Kamala Harris won an electoral vote in 2024. State Republicans want to change the law.
Nebraska Democratic State Senator John Cavanaugh
Nebraska state Sen. John Cavanaugh, a Democrat, campaigns in Omaha in 2024. Alex Wroblewski / AFP via Getty Images
By Alexandra Marquez
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Only three House Republicans won re-election in 2024 while Kamala Harris carried their districts — and one of them, Rep. Don Bacon, is retiring this year in Nebraska, giving Democrats a big opportunity in the Omaha-area seat they’ve been trying to capture for years.

This has given way to a crowded Democratic primary sparring on issues from policy positions to whether one candidate is, by seeking the seat, jeopardizing the party’s limited power in the state Legislature. And unlike in most congressional districts around the country, in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a so-called blue dot, this could have national implications.

Harris and Joe Biden each carried the district and the electoral vote that comes with it under Nebraska law. Many Republicans there want to change that law to the more common winner-take-all format, which would mean another practically automatic GOP electoral vote in the deep-red state. Previous efforts to change the law have failed, but changes in the makeup of the state Legislature could tip the balance.

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Opponents of state Sen. John Cavanaugh are starting to raise the issue as the Democratic primary heats up.

“The No. 1 reason that I actually got into the race was because of my concern about Sen. Cavanaugh’s candidacy,” said Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County District Court. “His candidacy is extremely problematic, because if he is successfully elected to Congress, our Republican governor is going to appoint his replacement in the Nebraska Legislature. And when that happens, the Democrats are no longer going to have enough votes to sustain a filibuster.”

Though legislators serving in Nebraska’s unicameral state Legislature are technically nonpartisan, members of the Republican-leaning bloc currently hold a narrow supermajority, with 33 GOP-leaning members to 16 Democratic-leaning members.

If Cavanaugh wins the primary and the general election in November, he would have to resign his seat in the Nebraska Legislature, granting Republican Gov. Jim Pillen the chance to appoint a successor to serve for the next two years.

Democrats in the state assume that, given the opportunity, Pillen would appoint a Republican to Cavanaugh’s seat, temporarily expanding the GOP-leaning supermajority in the state Legislature.

“I think that person, who the governor would appoint, would support ‘winner-take-all,” Barry Rubin, a nonpartisan political operative in Nebraska who once served as executive director of the state’s Democratic party, told NBC News. “If [Cavanaugh] wins and nothing changes, the ‘blue dot’ is gone,” he continued, pointing to other policy issues that could be affected, too.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2024, speaks during a campaign rally that year in Papillion, Nebraska. Charlie Neibergall / AP file

Cavanaugh defended his candidacy, telling NBC News that he expects Democrats to pick up more seats in the Legislature in November, which would expand their minority enough that one pickup of his seat wouldn’t have the effect Rhoades is predicting.

If he wins the primary and general elections, “I will not resign until after the election in January, and at that point we will have already had the opportunity to elect more Democrats to the Legislature,” Cavanaugh said.

Omaha City Councilman Danny Begley, who has endorsed Cavanaugh, agreed. Begley, who also serves as vice president for the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1483, added that he thinks other candidates are raising the “blue dot” issue “to scare people from voting for John.”

Rhoades disagreed, saying the margins in legislative districts on the ballot this year are too steep for Democrats to count on flipping them.

Rubin, the nonpartisan strategist, acknowledged that this “blue dot” problem seemed niche and wonky, but added that Omaha-area Democratic voters are particularly tuned in to how this issue could affect the future of their representation in the electoral college.

“It is a legitimate argument to make in a Democratic primary, because there is a real factor of unintended consequences,” he said, adding that keeping the “blue dot” is an issue that ”Democratic primary voters are very passionate about.”

While Rhoades has repeatedly slammed Cavanaugh in the primary for how his candidacy could impact the state, political organizer Denise Powell, another leading candidate, said that it still ranks behind traditional political issues.

“It is certainly something that folks are bringing up to me,” Powell said. “But at the end of the day, when I’m out talking, like 99.9% of people are talking to me about their health care costs and the cost of groceries.”

Cavanaugh and Powell lead the pack in fundraising — each raising north of $300,000 in the last quarter of 2025 — and in national attention. Cavanaugh touts endorsements from Reps. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.; Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash.; and Jamie Raskin, D-Md., and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC.

Powell, meanwhile, has been endorsed by Rep. Emily Randall, D-Wash., former Rep. Annie Kuster, D-N.H., the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC and EMILY’s List, a national organization that works to elect Democratic women.

“This seat is much more competitive without Bacon, but Democrats can’t take anything for granted. If we don’t get this one, we don’t flip the House,” one national Democratic strategist backing Powell told NBC News.

On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have cleared the field for Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who has been endorsed by Bacon, Pillen and GOP Sens. Pete Ricketts and Deb Fischer.

Though the seat has been in Republican hands for almost a decade and Harding is already preparing for the general election, he faces an uphill battle in the general election, two years after Harris carried the district by about 5 points.

The Democratic primary so far has centered on each candidate’s plan to stand up to President Donald Trump’s agenda and to lower costs.

“Affordability and health care are big,” Powell told NBC News in an interview about the concerns she’s hearing from voters in the district. “People [are] worried about how they’re going to make ends meet, life is getting harder for people. And then alongside that, I think we’re all witnessing so many of these abuses of power coming down from this administration.”

Several national Democratic operatives backing Powell praised her response to Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids around the country, noting that Powell is Latina and the daughter of immigrants.

“Voters aren’t looking for more of the same. They want authentic leaders who understand the challenges they’re facing and are going to fight back against the chaos they’re seeing in the news,” Jessica Mackler, the president of EMILY’s List, told NBC News in a statement.

In his campaign, Cavanaugh has touted his work serving parts of the district in his two terms as a state legislator.

“I’m somebody who gets things done for my constituents and passes legislation that actually improves the economic conditions of people in Nebraska,” Cavanaugh said in an interview.

Evan Brown, the executive director of the CPC PAC, told NBC News that Cavanaugh’s record in the state Legislature is part of the reason the group decided to endorse him in this race.

“Someone like John, who can focus on kitchen table issues, can win a critical, strategic seat like this, and he has also just built so much trust in the community, and that’s what we’re seeing on the ground and in the polling and in the fundraising, showing that he’s the strongest candidate in this race,” Brown said.

Cavanaugh’s candidacy is boosted by his family legacy in Omaha. In the 1970s, Cavanaugh’s father represented the 2nd District in Congress and his sister, state Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh, also serves in the statehouse.

Alexandra Marquez

Alexandra Marquez is a politics reporter for NBC News.