Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki looks ahead to the major elections taking place around the country in April. Plus, we dive into the latest on the talks to end the DHS shutdown.
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— Adam Wollner
The key elections to watch next month
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The parade of midterm primaries has hit a lull, but the next month will nonetheless bring four notable elections around the country. Each will be worth watching for a different reason.
April 7
Special runoff election in Georgia’s 14th District: Democrat Shawn Harris finished with the most votes in the preliminary March 10 election, but it would be an astonishing upset if he prevails in the runoff over Republican Clay Fuller.
Georgia’s 14 District, which stretches from the far Atlanta suburbs of Cobb County to the northwest corner of the state, voted for Donald Trump by 37 points in 2024. No Democrat currently in the House was elected in a district that sided with Trump by more than 10 points. The initial election was essentially a jungle primary, with candidates from all parties on the same ballot and the top two finishers advancing to the runoff after no one cleared 50%.
The Republican vote was divided among numerous candidates, but it won’t be on April 7. The suspense will be about the margin. In every House special election of Trump’s second term, Democrats have improved by at least 13 net points on their 2024 presidential election performance. If they can hold Fuller’s margin to the mid-teens, Democrats will try to claim a moral victory here.
Wisconsin Supreme Court: Don’t let the officially nonpartisan nature of this election fool you. In Wisconsin, judicial races have become deeply partisan exercises. And lately, it’s Democrats who have enjoyed the clear advantage in them thanks to their disproportionately energized voting base.
This was the story a year ago, when the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court was on the line and both parties poured record-shattering sums into the race. It ended up a landslide for the Democratic-backed candidate, with the party’s higher-income, college-educated voters flooding the polls.
The stakes aren’t as stark this time around and the race is attracting far less national interest, which points to potentially low turnout — the exact kind of atmosphere where the Democrats have been excelling. Here, it may be Republicans trying to claim a moral victory if the margin is close.
April 16
Special election in New Jersey’s 11th District: In a different political atmosphere, Republicans would probably be a lot more excited about the race to replace now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill.
This is a suburban district that was once a Republican bastion but has trended toward Democrats due to demographic changes and backlash to Trump. After a contentious primary, Democrats nominated Analilia Mejia, whose progressive politics and backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could (in theory) unnerve voters in a district like this. And in Joe Hathaway, a local mayor who has been critical of Trump, Republicans are fielding a candidate who could appeal to those same voters.
Still, this is a district that sided with Kamala Harris by nine points in 2024. And the pattern of Democratic overperformance in House special elections is so well-established that it’s hard to see Hathaway getting all that close. But Mejia’s victory in the Democratic primary — with not quite 30% of the vote — has added intrigue to a race that otherwise would have had little.
April 21
Virginia redistricting referendum: This should be the most interesting election of April. Democrats are attempting to gerrymander their way to a 10-1 advantage in the state’s House delegation, up from their current 6-5 edge.
