Black Friday deals won't be good this year, according to experts — here's what to know

They’re still worth shopping, but you’ll need to put in a little extra effort to make a good deal great. Our foolproof plan has all the details.
You’re guaranteed to see products sell-out this Black Friday due to limited inventories, so don't wait to see if prices drop lower.
You’re guaranteed to see products sell-out this Black Friday due to limited inventories, so don't wait to see if prices drop lower. Vivian Le / NBC News

Black Friday (which is happening today) and Cyber Monday aren’t sprints anymore; they’ve fused together into a shopping marathon. Instead of one day for in-store deals and another for online promos, retailers now host weeks-long events, prompting experts to coin the term Black November (which feels much more accurate, if you ask me).

Now that deals are live, easy to get overwhelmed by the hundreds of sales out there, and the last thing you want to do is impulse buy or overspend, especially if tariffs shrank your budget this year. To help you make a Black Friday and Cyber Monday game plan, I put together this guide filled with tips and tricks I swear by after covering the sales for over five years. I also talked to experts to get their advice about what to buy, what to skip and how to save the most.

Want more from NBC Select? Sign up for our newsletter, The Selection, and shop smarter.

Head’s up: Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be different this year

Deals won’t be as fantastic as usual, but they’re still worthwhile.

Believe me, this is not the news I wanted to hear either. But tariffs are impacting Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and it’s important to understand how so you can manage your expectations and strategize appropriately.

Here’s the deal: To avoid drastically increasing prices for customers, most retailers are currently partially absorbing tariff costs, which limits how much they can afford to discount products and still make a profit. “Retailers will still give us Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals, but less of them, and discounts won’t be as deep,” says Erik Guzik, an assistant clinical professor of management and entrepreneurship at the University of Montana College of Business. “In the past, we may have expected a 40% to 50% discount, but this year, 20% to 30% may be what we need to consider quite good, especially in areas that have been targeted by tariffs, like clothing, footwear, toys and electronics.”

That doesn’t mean deals aren’t worth shopping. They absolutely are, especially since experts expect consumer goods prices to increase in 2026. “Any discount at this point is positive,” says Guzik. Most retailers overstocked their warehouses before the new tariff policy took effect to avoid increased duties, but once that inventory is gone, they’ll have to import items and pay higher tariff rates, giving them no choice but to increase products’ prices in most cases, says Guzik.

Add to cart and checkout ASAP.

All the experts I talked to have one main piece of advice for shoppers: hurry. Because retailers are discounting products during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while partially absorbing the cost of tariffs, their profit margins are quite low. That will probably cause them to limit product quantities, like only putting 500 models of a certain TV on sale rather than 1,000, which means you’ll see items go out-of-stock quicker than usual, says Ronald Goodstein, an associate professor of marketing at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

The overall takeaway? “Once you see that discount, it’s probably the best one we’re getting this holiday season,” says Guzik. “Waiting to see if deals get better, which likely won’t be the case, is more risky than ever. Once an item goes out of stock, it probably won’t come back.”

What to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Tariffs are making them less flashy than usual, but Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales still offer the deepest discounts across the biggest selection of products all year. That means (almost) everything on your wishlist will likely be on sale. The best deals, however, tend to fall within four categories: tech, toys, small home and kitchen appliances, and subscriptions and experiences. “These are the categories where retailers go big and prices are strong,” says Stephanie Carls, a retail insights expert at RetailMeNot. Below, I break down what to look for in each category and examples of popular products on sale now.

Tech

There’s no better time of year to buy tech than Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Most brands drop prices on TVs, laptops, video game consoles, headphones, speakers, smart home products, smartwatches and more by about 30 to 50%, says Ashley Feinstein Gerstley, a shopping and savings strategist at Rakuten, and you’ll find lots of tech listed at its lowest price ever.

If you’re specifically in the market for video game consoles, there’s no shortage of deals during Black Friday and Cyber Monday from top brands like Nintendo and PlayStation. And beyond discounts on individual consoles, controllers and games, brands usually sell exclusive bundles as some of their best offers of the year. Our team is always waiting for the Nintendo Switch bundle to drop around Black Friday, for example. Last year, it came with the original Nintendo Switch, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and a 12-month subscription to Nintendo Switch Online for $299.98 — that’s $79.99 less than if you bought each item separately. This year, we’re eyeing Nintendo Switch 2 bundles like the Nintendo Switch 2 + Pokémon Legends: Z-A Bundle.

Toys

Toys are among the most competitive categories during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, both in terms of discounts and demand. The most popular toys sell out quickly (I’m talking a couple of hours, maximum), so once you see prices drop, buy your must-haves immediately. Legos, Barbies, Hot Wheels, Hasbro board games, Tamagotchis — they’ll be on sale and they’ll go fast.

Small home and kitchen appliances

Almost every small home and kitchen appliance you can think of gets discounted this month, so now is the time to buy that Vitamix blender or Dyson vacuum you’re dreaming about. In addition to items you use year-round, keep an eye on seasonal appliances, like space heaters and snow blowers, as well as tableware, home decor and other essentials you’ll need to host guests during the holidays, says Gerstley.

Subscriptions and experiences

Tangible products aren’t the only things discounted on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Almost every company that sells something hops on the bandwagon, and in recent years, we’ve seen discounts on subscriptions to TV, music and educational platforms. In 2024, for example, you could get a year-long Hulu subscription for $0.99 per month (normally $9.99 a month) and an annual MasterClass subscription for 50% off. There are deals on experiences, too, like travel packages, fitness classes and spa treatments, especially at local businesses in your area.

Hulu and Disney+ (with ads)

What not to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday

If you’re trying to narrow down your shopping list, Carls recommends waiting to buy everyday apparel (especially cold-weather pieces), beauty products and furniture. “Those tend to drop more in December when stores start clearing inventory,” she says. You can skip mattresses, too, as well as large home and kitchen appliances — discounts tend to be just as good around President’s Day.

Expert shopping tips: Black Friday and Cyber Monday do’s and don’ts

As I mentioned above, Black Friday and Cyber Monday aren’t sprints anymore; they’re a shopping marathon. Those who plan for it will save the most, so to help you strategize, I rounded up a list of dos and don’ts based on my 5+ years of experience covering sales, as well as experts’ advice.

Don’t: Wait for prices to drop more

“If it’s a good price and the exact model you want, grab it,” says Carls. Limited inventories and products going out of stock are certainties, not predictions, so it’s better to buy now than panic later.

Do: Make a shopping list

Making a mental shopping list isn’t nearly as useful as writing it down, whether on paper or your phone’s notes app. Some retailers also let you create wishlists on their websites. Referring to your shopping list helps you hold yourself accountable for buying what you actually need rather than filling your cart with impulse purchases.

Once you’ve nailed down your list, rank order it, says Henry Jin, a professor of supply chain management at Miami University’s Farmer School of Business. “You’re only saving money if you’re paying less for things you’ve always wanted or really need,” he says. “Rank order your wish list based on the greatest need, and recognize that the items on the bottom of that list may be aspirational purchases you can delay for now.”

Do: Set a budget

Think about the grand total you’re comfortable spending this season, factoring in costs like gifts (for yourself and others), travel, hosting expenses, gift wrapping supplies and shipping fees, says Gerstley. Put a chunk of that aside for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and build in what Gerstley calls a “fun buffer” to give you room for a spontaneous splurge or two without feeling stressed. Also, before shopping for holiday gifts, talk to your loved ones about budgets beforehand so everyone is on the same page.

Do: Get cozy with your favorite retailers

Sign up for your favorite brands’ email newsletters, SMS lists and push app alerts, and follow them on social media. Companies often use these channels to update shoppers about flash sales, limited-edition drops, new deals and extra promos you might be able to stack on top of the discount.

Do: Stack savings

Retailers likely aren’t slashing prices as much as they have in years past, but stacking savings can take a deal from good to great. On top of getting the discount, paying with a credit card that lets you earn points as you spend, downloading cashback extensions, adding extra promo codes and coupons and shopping on websites with free shipping are all ways to put money back in your pocket, says Carls.

Don’t: Ignore shipping fees and where products ship from

No one wants to pay for shipping, but if you’re shopping online, you’re at the mercy of the retailer, says Jin. Shipping fees can drive up the price of your purchase, so try to avoid them if you can. One of the best ways to do so is buying online and picking up in-store, and doing the bulk of your shopping at retailers whose loyalty programs you’re part of, like Amazon Prime, Walmart+ and Target Circle, all of which offer free shipping as a perk.

During Black Friday and Cyber Monday, some retailers also offer free shipping if you spend a certain amount, so look out for those offers. But be aware that the minimum order required to unlock free shipping might be higher than you’re used to due to tariffs. “A way for retailers to absorb some of the higher expenses is to require customers to spend more in order to qualify for free shipping,” says Jin.

Also, pay attention to where products ship from before you check out. Sometimes retailers don’t disclose that information, but if they do, and your products are shipping from outside the U.S., you may have to pay additional tariffs since the de minimis exception ended this summer. Experts also recommend only shopping from retailers you’re familiar with — buying from those you’re unfamiliar with means there’s a greater chance for surprises to pop up. And since you don’t have experience with them, you won’t be able to recognize red flags, like exorbitant shipping fees.

Do: Comparison shop

During major sale events, retailers usually sell the same products for the exact (or almost exact) same prices, a practice called price chasing. In these cases, deciding where to buy comes down to the details. Compare shipping fees, stackable promo codes and coupons, cashback offers, return policies, extended warranties and reward points you might be eligible for. You can also set up price drop alerts through certain retailers’ websites, like Amazon, or through tools like Keepa, CamelCamelCamel and Honey, so you’ll immediately know if any brands discount an item more than you expected them to. Comparison shopping helps you “cherry pick” deals so you get the absolute lowest price on each item, rather than blindly doing all your shopping at one place and potentially sacrificing savings, says Goodstein.

Do: Track prices

Retailers sometimes raise prices prior to major sales like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and at NBC Select, we follow specific criteria to evaluate deals before recommending them. We use price trackers like CamelCamelCamel, Honey and Keepa to evaluate an item’s price history and determine if it’s actually a good deal or just temporarily marked down from an inflated baseline. You can use these sites to track prices, too.

Don’t: Forget to read return and price matching polices

Most retailers let you return Black Friday and Cyber Monday purchases within a certain timeframe, and some even offer an extended return policy around the holidays. Make sure you actually read retailers’ return policies so you know when you’ll have to send something back by, if needed — no one wants to get stuck with a product they don’t want.

Also, research what retailers have return policies, especially since shopping early is so important this year. If an item drops in price within the two weeks after you buy it, for example, some retailers will honor the lower price and refund you the difference, says Goodstein.

Frequently asked questions

Black Friday is on Nov. 28, 2025, and Cyber Monday is on Dec. 1, 2025. Deals are live right now.

The strongest sales end on Cyber Monday, but since many people shop for holiday gifts through mid-December, retailers continue to offer discounts. That said, they’re typically weaker compared to those during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and there’s a smaller volume of deals, so you have fewer options to choose from.

No, there’s not a difference between Black Friday and Cyber Monday anymore, says Goodstein. The line between them has completely blurred since they’re no longer separate, one-day events, where one focuses on in-store deals and the other on online deals. They’ve morphed into a weeks-long savings period experts call Black November, during which you can shop online and in stores for any product imaginable.

At this point, the main difference between Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals is the terminology retailers use. They usually use “Black Friday” language now through the Saturday after the shopping holiday, and swap to “Cyber Monday” language by Sunday. Otherwise, the majority of discounts and the product selection remain completely identical.

There are usually no better deals on Cyber Monday. Sales tend to mirror Black Friday, though retailers may add a few new limited-time promotions to their assortments. Overall, it’s best to think of Cyber Monday as your absolute last chance to shop.

There are pros and cons to shopping in-store and online during Black Friday. Consider these factors while making your decision:

  1. Online shopping is more convenient than in-store shopping, and it’s easier to compare prices across sites. Retailers also offer a wider variety of discounts online.
  2. Retailers want to make in-store shopping a special experience for customers on Black Friday, so they may offer exclusive deals and gifts with purchase at their locations.
  3. Shopping in-store lets you try on and touch items, and take them home that day.
  4. You’ll likely have to pay shipping fees if you shop online, but you can avoid them by shopping in person. To get the best of both worlds, buy online and pick up in-store when possible.

Travel Tuesday is dedicated to deals on flights, hotels and cruises, but brands also host sales on related products like suitcases and toiletry bags. Travel Tuesday falls on the day after Cyber Monday, so this year it’s on Dec. 2.

Meet our experts

At NBC Select, we work with experts who have specialized knowledge and authority based on relevant training and/or experience. We also ensure that all expert advice and recommendations are made independently and with no undisclosed financial conflicts of interest.

  • Ashley Feinstein Gerstley is a shopping and savings strategist at Rakuten.
  • Stephanie Carls is a retail insights expert at RetailMeNot.
  • Ronald Goodstein is an associate professor of marketing at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
  • Erik Guzik is an assistant clinical professor of management and entrepreneurship at the University of Montana College of Business.
  • Henry Jin is a professor of supply chain management at Miami University’s Farmer School of Business.

Why trust NBC Select?

I’m a reporter at NBC Select who has covered Black Friday and Cyber Monday since 2020. I wrote NBC Select’s histories of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and I cover the best deals during all major shopping holidays throughout the year. I’ve also been reporting about how tariffs are impacting shopping habits and the price of consumer goods since March. For this piece, I interviewed five experts, as well as researched retail trends and consumer spending data.

Catch up on NBC Select’s in-depth coverage of tech and tools, wellness and more, and follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok to stay up to date.