Warmer words but relations remain frosty between the U.S. and its old friends in Europe

Secretary of State Marco Rubio proclaimed a “golden age” Monday in U.S. relations — not with Germany or France, but with Hungary, as he met with strongman Viktor Orbán.
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From Munich to Bratislava and Budapest.

The United States’ top diplomat left a major European security gathering over the weekend to a standing ovation, but he soon gave a clear signal of what America now sees as friendly territory on the continent.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio proclaimed a “golden age” Monday in U.S. relations — not with Germany or France, but with Hungary, as he met with the country’s strongman Viktor Orbán, widely considered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest partner among all European Union leaders.

A day earlier, he met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another populist opposed to support for Ukraine and aligned with the MAGA agenda.

That central European swing through Trump-friendly capitals followed Rubio's Valentine's Day appeal to old bonds at the Munich Security Conference, where he struck a warmer tone after months of mounting antagonism between America and its longtime allies.

“We belong together,” Rubio told the audience of European leaders and policymakers who gathered in Munich on Saturday still reeling from the clash over Greenland and the sense they could no longer rely on Washington’s support for their security.

“For us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe,” Rubio added to applause.

On the surface, this message stood in stark contrast to the verbal attack on European values made by Vice President JD Vance at the same gathering last year. But many experts and observers argued that the message delivered by Rubio was not a shift in policy, but a sugar-coated version of the U.S. approach that has fueled talk of a "rupture" with its longtime allies.

“The Rubio speech marked a deliberate contrast to Vance’s broadside at European cultural decline,” Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of the London-based think tank Chatham House, wrote in an analysis. “But there was a clear warning that the Trump administration would go its own way in pursuit of U.S. interests if it did not find Europe sympathetic.”

62. Munich Security Conference
Rubio addressed the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.Sven Hoppe / SPA via Getty Images

European leaders seem to be under no illusion.

“A gap, a deep divide, has opened up between Europe and the United States of America,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the conference Friday.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, meanwhile, expressed doubts in Munich that Trump had abandoned his aggressive pursuit of Greenland, the NATO member's semi-autonomous Arctic territory. “Unfortunately, I think the desire is the same,” she said.

“Our allies no longer trust us,” Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., wrote in a post on X after Rubio's speech. “I know there was celebration at the end of the Munich Security Conference. Unfortunately the champagne corks were popping in Beijing and Moscow,” he added.

Image: TOPSHOT-GREENLAND-DENMARK-NATO-POLITICS-DEFENCE-MARITIME
A Danish soldier in Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 26.Ina Fassbender / AFP via Getty Images

Where Rubio went next may be the clearest sign of who the Trump administration sees as its true allies in Europe.

After meeting with Fico in Slovakia the day after his speech, Rubio appeared alongside Orbán early Monday to hail the importance of U.S. ties with Hungary's nationalist leader. Orbán's hard-line stance on immigration and rejection of Western liberal values have been championed by conservative and hard-right movements in Europe and the United States, but he is nonetheless facing a serious challenge ahead of elections in April.

The two nations also announced the signing of an agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Rubio with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on Monday.Alex Brandon / AFP - Getty Images

A senior U.S. visit to Hungary immediately following Munich can’t be read simply as alliance maintenance, said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London. “It functions as an unmistakable signal of political affinity.”

Slovakia is not institutionally identical to Hungary, but it is moving along a recognizably similar trajectory under Fico, he said. The U.S. engagement with those two leaders reads less as neutral diplomacy and more as reinforcement, and even encouragement, toward governments drifting in a similar direction, he added.

Taken together, the order of Rubio’s engagements in Europe send a clear message, Hellyer said — “rhetorical reassurance to Western Europe in Munich, followed by demonstrative outreach to Central European governments politically aligned — or aligning — with the ideological themes shaping contemporary MAGA foreign-policy thinking,” he said.

Rubio said in his Munich speech that the Trump administration was driven by a “vision of a future as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization’s past.”

He referenced Christian faith as “a sacred inheritance” and “unbreakable link between the Old World and the new.” Like Vance, he also criticized “destabilizing” mass migration and urged Europeans to regain control of their national borders.

“While we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe,” Rubio said.

He was speaking to a room filled with officials from France, Germany, Britain and other nations long seen as America's closest allies. But on Monday Rubio was hailing the U.S. commitment to Orbán and endorsing the euroskeptic strongman for another term in office.

Rubio chose to visit the “two most pro-Putin, anti-Brussels and Trump-loving leaders in the E.U.” after his “oily flattery” of the Europeans in Munich, Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Eurasia Group, the geopolitical risk analysis firm headquartered in New York, assessed in a post on X.

“By their friends shall you know them,” he added.