One month ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin went on television to announce he was invading Ukraine and warned the West that attempts to intervene could be met with nuclear retaliation.
In the four weeks since, Russian forces have launched airstrikes, laid siege to its cities, and prompted millions to flee the worst violence Europe has seen in decades. The conflict has reshaped the geopolitical landscape, widening a divide between Moscow and the West redolent of the Cold War. And it has already raised fears of global economic and food crises.
The invasion was predicted for months by Western intelligence agencies and analysts on social media, but while its effects have shaken the world, perhaps the biggest surprise has been a Russian military campaign widely regarded as disastrous to this point.
That's contrasted with a staunch Ukrainian defense, bolstered by support from dozens of allies including the United States, and inspired by the talismanic Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The month-old war has posed the biggest foreign policy challenge so far for President Joe Biden, who had hoped to focus on China but instead jetted to Europe on Wednesday to attend an emergency NATO summit. Biden has been tasked with corralling Washington’s allies against the Kremlin — but without provoking a direct confrontation with a nuclear power.
Western weapons, many of which have been supplied by Washington, have been key in helping Ukraine to hold firm against the Russian advance. Nevertheless, most experts say victory for either side will be difficult and costly — raising the possibility that the conflict could now descend into an even more violent and attritional new phase.
“The key question is whether Ukraine can hold out for long enough for the Russian onslaught not merely to be stalled, but actually seen to be visibly failing,” said Keir Giles, a Russia military expert and a senior consulting fellow at the London think tank Chatham House.
“That will depend not only on the speed with which Western support can be absorbed by Ukraine,” he added, “but also the tolerance of Ukraine’s population and leadership for the horrors that Russia will seek to inflict to bring the conflict to a conclusion.”
The war has conjured specters that Europe had hoped were banished to the past.
Tanks have once again rolled onto the soil of a sovereign democracy; civilians have been torn from loved ones at train stations as they flee bombardment; and an autocrat has used historical fantasy to justify a brutal land grab.
The numbers are striking for a conflict younger than 30 days.
Some 10 million people — nearly a quarter of Ukraine's population — have fled their homes, according to the United Nations, either displaced internally or trekking as refugees to neighboring countries, such as Poland and Moldova.
